Raids » Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is a measure of 5-on-5 u

Check in throughout the day for the very latest from around the NHL, including injury updates, roster moves, and other breaking news. Arizona Coyotes Chris Summers and Brandon McMillian cleared waivers. - TSN, Pierre LeBrun Boston Bruins Forward Bobby Robins will be out until October with a concussion. - Boston Herald Brad Marchand was not at practice this morning. - Team Tweet Buffalo Sabres Jhonas Enroth will get the start tomorrow vs the Wild. - Team Tweet Calgary Flames Flames acquisition Drew Shore was called up and practiced with the team on Wednesday. - Jermain Franklin, TSN Karri R?m? skated this morning on his own. Ramo will be on the road trip with the Flames. Ramo said he felt good following a practice yesterday and will see how he feels tomorrow. They are being cautious with his head injury. - Jermain Franklin, TSN Columbus Blue Jackets Forward Artem Anisimov (torn triceps) skated today with teams strength and conditioning coach. - Rob Mixer, Blue Jackets Defenceman Cody Goloubef is expected to play tonight. - Team Tweet Edmonton Oilers Boyd Gordon did not practice today. - Team Tweet Florida Panthers Shawn Thornton (groin) took part in the morning skate. - Harvey Fialkov, Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel Los Angeles Kings Martin Jones likely to get the start tonight against the New Jersey Devils. - Jon Rosen, Kings Insider Pittsburgh Penguins Steve Downie was back at practice after missing the third period of Tuesday nights game. - Team Tweet Claim Mark Arcobello off waivers from the Nashville Predators. - TSN, Pierre LeBrun Re-assign Bryan Rust and Taylor Chorney to AHL. - Team Tweet Montreal Canadiens P.A. Parenteau (concussion) is expected to play tonight. - Canadiens Website Alexei Emelin might be a healthy scratch for tonights game against the Blue Jackets. - Pat Hickey, Montreal Gazette Tomas Plekanec is expected to play with Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher on Wednesday night. - Pat Hickey, Montreal Gazette Nashville Predators Predators netminder Pekka Rinne left Tuesdays game against the Canucks early in the third period after being run into by Chris Higgins and Anton Volchenkov. The Predators are calling it a lower-body injury. - TSN Toronto Maple Leafs James van Riemsdyk did not skate this morning in Anaheim, but he is expected to play tonight. van Riemsdyk was under the weather this morning. Also absent this morning and perhaps in more doubt to play is Leo Komarov. Komarov is dealing with a shoulder injury. He did not skate yesterday either. The Leafs are hopeful that hell be available to play. Sam Carrick would rejoin the lineup if Komarov cant play. Jonathan Bernier is expected to start against the Ducks. Peter Horachek wouldnt commit to splitting the goaltenders with the Leafs playing in San Jose tomorrow. Horachek said he was comfortable with playing James Reimer, but would see how the game went tonight before making that decision. Horachek continues to play around with the line combinations. Back on the wing after a pair of games down the middle is Mike Santorelli, who joined Nazem Kadri on Torontos second unit. - Jonas Siegel, TSN Winnipeg Jets Wednesday is a complete day off for the Jets. They fly to Dallas tomorrow afternoon. - Sarah Orlesky, TSN Adidas Derick Brassard Jersey . - First-timer Chris Harris Jr. Adidas Joe Mullen Jersey . -- Canadian Erik Bedard pitched into the fifth inning in his bid to win a spot in Tampa Bays rotation, helping the Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 6-3 on Saturday. http://www.adidaspenguinsjerseys.com/?ta...y-crosby-jersey. 98 jersey in a game yet, and already its a big seller. Cheap Penguins Jerseys Authentic . -- The Tampa Bay Lightning are disappointed, though not discouraged. Adidas Carl Hagelin Jersey . Jose Bautista homered for the fifth straight game in the sixth inning, following a two-out solo homer by Melky Cabrera. Edwin Encarnacion led off the seventh with a homer to tie the game 3-3 and, with two out in the seventh, Munenori Kawasaki came through with the two-out single to score pinch-runner Steve Tolleson with what proved to be the winning run.The National Hockey League’s scheduling process strikes me as a laborious task. The people responsible for creating the thirty team schedules have to take into account things like venue availability, travel burden, associated costs of travel, and competitive balance, all while trying to squeeze 1,230 games into a seven-month window. One of the things I’ve always found most interesting is how the league attempts to mitigate the number of back-to-back situations (not so eloquently referred to as “schedule losses” in NHL and NBA circles), a considerable slice of the league’s larger fight with competitive balance. To the league’s credit, Dirk Hoag’s work suggests that the league does try to schedule a comparable number of back-to-back situations for every franchise. Now, the eyeball test has long been damning of team performance on the second-half of back-to-backs, and I think that’s largely why the league has really made a concerted effort to balance the number of schedule losses around the league. The data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms, considerably so when those back-to-backs come on the road. Seven years of available data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms. Below, I have compiled Score-Adjusted Fenwick%, 5-on-5 Goal%, and Regulation/OT Win% for teams in back-to-back situations. They are slotted next to your league-average rates, to illustrate the drop-off between the two. (Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is a measure of 5-on-5 unblocked shot attempts, weighted for score, comparing results to league averages based on game score.) The Value of Rest Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% Back-to-Back Home 51.0% 51.0% 53.0% All Home 52.0% 52.0% 56.0% Back-to-Back Road 47.0% 46.0% 41.0% All Road 48.0% 49.0% 44.0% So, teams without rest against teams with rest of ranging length are going to underperform – we see a three percentage drop-off in regulation/overtime win percentage for both home and road teams, which really is the smoking gun. It’s also hard to miss that possession and goal metrics slide in both states, too. Home teams drop a full percentage point on both fronts. Road teams drop a percentage point in possession rates, and three percentage points in goal rates. But, back-to-back situations – or “schedule losses” -- aren’t the only instance where a team is disadvantaged. The theory isn’t just that teams devoid of rest are at a disadvantage.dddddddddddd It’s that teams disproportionately rested to the opposition are at a disadvantage, in which back-to-back situations are only a small part of a large sample. Let’s change gears and turn to rest differentials. We can pull data for how teams perform with three days favorable rest, two days favorable rest, one day favorable rest, and so forth. If our theory holds true, performance – be it by possession rates, goal rates, or win rates – should deteriorate as rest becomes less advantageous, and travel becomes more frequent. Over the same seven years of data, here’s how home teams performed over various rest differentials. Home Team Rest Advantage 2007-2014 Rest Advantage Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% 3 or more day deficit 50.9% 48.3% 52.3% 2-day deficit 51.1% 50.6% 54.9% 1-day deficit 51.6% 51.9% 54.2% Even 51.3% 52.0% 55.3% One-day advantage 52.1% 53.4% 58.9% Two-day advantage 52.6% 54.0% 58.3% 3 or more day advantage 51.9% 51.7% 51.6% I think this graph is about as telling as it gets. As you increase a home team’s rest advantage, their possession rates, goal rates, and win rates all spike. The inverse, of course, is true for road teams – as they see rest become more unfavourable, possession rates decline, goal rates decline, and win rates decline. Again, this gets very much back to what our eyes tell us – that teams who have rest advantages generally play a better hockey game, and teams that are fatigued generally play a worse hockey game. More importantly, it signifies that not all games are created equal. A home team with a two-game rest disadvantage is only expected to control 51.09% of the play, 50.58% of the 5-on-5 goals, and win 54.87% of the games. A home team with a two-game rest advantage should be held to significantly higher standards: on average, they should control 52.64% of play, score 54.04% of the goals, and win 58.25% of the hockey games. It seems certain to me that the league would be privy to this sort of data and reluctant to put teams into positions where they are regularly at a rest disadvantage, but it’s still an important topic that should be considered when forecasting future outcomes. Rightfully, analysts spend a lot of time talking up the importance of home-ice advantage – the data bears this advantage out. However, this data suggests that rest is another critical, albeit less appreciated, factor for teams and associated performance. ' ' '